Thursday, January 13, 2022
The next two days will be mild by January standards. This weekend, however, a lot will change. Arctic air will move on Saturday and set the stage for a storm with explosive development on Sunday.
Please note that the storm has not even formed yet. So, the precise location of where it takes shape can then help determine the precise trail.
Now it seems there is great confidence in the start of this event mainly with snow. Then the details get blurry, and the snow / rain line will be the deciding factor with the totals and impact through Monday. More information on this storm below.
It is cold this morning and will be mild this afternoon. Snow showers are moving through central PA to New York.
Arctic air is building up in Canada and is waiting to move by Saturday.
The expected snowstorm didn’t even form, so not on this map. Maps show this below.
Almost Uniform: Seasonal between 20 and 20 years in much of the region.
The weather will thaw out for most of the region in the upper 1930s to the mid 1940s.
Weather Almanac: climate data
TODAY January 13
Low normal in Baltimore: 24ºF
Record of 0ºF in 1981
Normal High in Baltimore: 41 ºF
Record 76ºF 1932
Future prospects: winter storm
Arctic air will spread along the east coast. This is the kind of air mass that will maintain afternoon highs into the 1920s for much of central Maryland.
Jet Stream: 500 mb of vorticity
From Saturday afternoon to Monday morning.
I like this display to show the rapid rotation in the upper levels (18,000 feet).
Watch the storm roll south from North Dakota to the Gulf Coast states, the east coast “corner turn”.
It’s part of a deeply amplified hollow. This “turn” is what will help increase the rotation and rapid development of the surface storm.
Saturday surface weather
This storm has not yet formed. So, the location of where it’s happening on Saturday will help determine the rest of the trip.
A 50-100 mile change for this on Saturday, can make or break a difference of 1 inch of rain or 10+ inches of snow on Sunday.
Yes, there will be a lot of snow in areas that remain fully snow covered during this event.
Animation of the GFS model:
This is only a solution and I am only showing it to help show the overall development. Please DO NOT expect this to stay the same with every update. From this afternoon, I will be more detailed with the trends.
Comparison of models
So good thing is that the GFS and European models are more in agreement. Yes there are other models that may show more snow right now, but I see that as confirmation bias right now. This is not my goal despite my love of snow.
I didn’t update most of the time yesterday. If I had, there could have been a lot of snow. Night models actually cut Baltimore’s snow potential in half! I expect there to be more fluctuations, which is why I am not showing snow totals yet.
High Confidence: Most of our region will start with snow. The timing will be from Sunday afternoon to evening for the first snowflakes. The east coast / beaches can be rainy.
The two main models bring the low pressure via Baltimore and York / Harrisburg. This indoor runway would rain most areas east of I-81. Even the GFS which shows snow here at the end, shows rain overnight.
Heavy snow remains to the west and north.
* A simple move east of 50 to 100 miles of track would double the total snow potential.
* I still expect this to change and will highlight it in every update.
National Weather Service Storm Forecasts
Sunday evening to Monday morning
This is actually a great display just focusing on the overall impact. Here is an overview of the NWS office for Baltimore / Washington and State College / Central PA
7 day forecast
Weather publications directly to your inbox
Subscribe and be the first informed!
ALSO LOOK AT
ALL FITF EQUIPMENT
Winter Perspectives Series:
My call for snowfall
Recap from last winter: my old outlook and your notes of my storm forecast
Winter Weather Page – Lots of Resources
Increased solar cycle sunspots suggest more snow
Comparison of 4 different farm almanacs: winter outlook mostly colder than NOAA’s
NOAA Winter Outlook – But read the fine print
Signals for an early onset of winter in November
Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip
Nor’easters may give a clue for La Nina’s winter motif
Winter folklore checklist