Dangerous Times…Not | Jean Mangun


Pick a topic and it’s easy to find raging hysteria. Where will we start first: elections, inflation, Ukraine?

Realize that whoever you choose to vote for is the best person to be the next president. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Moreover, the fact that your favorite candidate does not obtain the plurality of votes is not important. That a citizen can freely support a candidate who loses an election is the heart and soul of participatory democracy and freedom of thought.

Note, however, that no one really cares who you vote for. When you post on SocMed that your presidential pick is Lian Matabungkay and everyone “likes” it with “Brilliant Choice”, don’t take it personally. You have provided your friends with “confirmation bias“. They also want to see President Matabungkay in Malacañang, and you have confirmed that they made the right choice.

It works like this: celebrity endorsements are not primarily intended to sell the product. The main reason is to confirm that you have made the right choice. And if you didn’t like this shampoo, well, that’s your fault since model Yewubdar Zendaya loves her hair. Celebrity and “expert” endorsements for contestants are no different.

Fear and panic tactics are an integral part of politics. The idea is that even if you don’t like my candidate, the opponent is a hundred times worse. Imagine what would happen if a candidate said something like, “My opponent is a capable person who should have your vote if I don’t run for office.” It would be the end of civilization as we know it.

Ongoing systemic inflation is not an economic event. It is a process resulting from a loss of confidence in the government. You’ve heard me say a hundred times that Philippine inflation moves with world crude oil prices. It is a fact. Sometimes inflation in the Philippines leads and sometimes it lags oil prices. But the correlation is obvious to everyone, unless you are a politician.

American politicians – the Federal Reserve also being a political group – call the current inflation
“transient.” This is possibly the most absurd description I’ve ever heard of almost anything. “Transient” means “not permanent”. I’m glad to know that the highest inflation in 40 years isn’t going to last forever. Maybe the United States will experience the highest inflation in 40 years until 2024, the next presidential election, but that won’t last until your favorite deity arrives on a golden duck. It’s only Transient.

However, the systemic inflation caused by a loss of trust in government is horrible. Not trusting the government fuels inflation and other economic events, like the most recent crypto price spike.

You can discuss who has the right to own Ukraine, just like Taiwan, Sabah and Jammu/Kashmir. But Russia has it and Ukraine wants it, and Putin won’t let that happen. The only way Ukraine can take it is if NATO – read USA – backs a Ukrainian invasion with NATO military boots on the ground. That will never happen. Even Ukraine knows it. But what Ukraine was afraid of was that Putin might intervene and anticipate a Ukrainian attack. He’s not that stupid. Why would Vladimir care since he makes Europe tremble just by having Russian troops nearby on his own Russian territory?

Biden has been saying for weeks that Putin will invade “tomorrow.” This hysteria was joined by the British Boris Johnson – who is on his way at the moment – and by the Frenchman Emmanuel Macron. Note that Biden has the worst approval rating for a recently inaugurated president since the Serpent in the Garden of Eden. Macron’s approval rating was 37% three weeks ago before “Freedom Convoy” truckers prepared to blockade Paris. Johnson “can win the next election” but his government is fragile. Do you
notice a pattern?

And against all the chaos, “crude oil futures are up sharply amid Russian invasion fears.” Go watch the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” video on YouTube. Better use of your time than hysteria.

Email me at [email protected] Follow me on Twitter @mangunonmarkets. PSE stock market information and technical analysis provided by AAA Southeast Equities Inc.


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